UFC 91 prediction: Joe Stevenson will edge Kenny Florian

This fight will come down to primarily one thing–takedowns.

If Joe Stevenson can score takedowns he can win this fight. The stand up edge goes to Florian, but if Stevenson can plant Florian on his back then his is safe from that threat…assuming he does not get caught by one of the vintage Kenny Florian elbows off his back.

If Stevenson avoids a razor sharp elbow from Florian, then the ground game is pretty even. Both are great grapplers so will likely cancel each other out. Florian is a finisher, mostly on the ground with rear naked chokes in his fights, but Stevenson will not get caught on the ground. Stevenson is a ground savvy fighter who does not get submitted. Aside from being choked out by BJ Penn, but that is a different case. Penn is on a different level than most BJJ players. When it comes to grappling Kenny Florian is definitely the man, but Penn is at demigod status on the mat.

If Stevenson gets this fight consistently to the ground without eating a big shot he should win. His wrestling is good enough to take Florian down. While Ken-Flo has been diligently working on his wrestling with a new coach, it is self admittedly his biggest weakness. How far he has come along in this area will be tested at UFC 91. But at the moment based on prior fights we have to give the edge in wrestling to Stevenson and it looks as though he will be able to get Florian down and score some points there with ground and pound.

Joe Stevenson by decision. 29-28.

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