Bet on Joe Stevenson (underdog) over Kenny Florian at UFC 91

 

 

Here’s BetUS’s line on this fight at UFC 91:

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11:30p

404 Kenny Florian   -185
    405 Joe Stevenson   +145

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It’s a good choice to pick Joe Stevenson in this situation. Here’s how the fight breaks down:

STRIKING

Kenny Florian is the better striker. He has the technical advantage and reach over “Joe Daddy.” While Florian isn’t a knockout artist, he is a TKO cut artist using his abnormally sharp elbows to slit his way to victory. The best example would be his cut win over Alex Karalexis where he opened up a huge gash over his fellow TUF 1 alumnus. He might not knock you out but he could cut you or outpoint you.

GRAPPLING

This is even. Both fighters are brilliant BJJ stylists. Joe Stevenson is a compact and unusually strong fighter for his weight. His sub skills are top notch. Florian is a great submission fighter and a rear naked choke specialist in the Octagon. They’re both very good and will negate one another.

CARDIO

Florian went 5 rounds with Sean Sherk, 5 hard rounds. And this was before his cardio went to the next level in training. Stevenson should be good to go for this fight, but there was that one time he did not look superb against Josh Neer, and because of that one off night we have to give the edge to Florian in this one, who appears to always come in sublime condition. So far this looks like Florian has the edge in this fight, but the next element of the bout will be the key component.

WRESTLING

This is Stevenson’s edge and will be the determining factor in this fight. Stevenson will be able to take down Florian with his exceptional wrestling skill. Interestingly both fighters are pretty dangerous in this position. Stevenson’s ground and pound is vicious and he is famous for being the source of one of biggest bloodbaths to grace the UFC Octagon. He split open Yves Edwards in their bout and withdrew about a quart of blood from the Bahamian fighter in the process to stop the fight. Florian with his razor sharp “bows”, has cut his way to victory even off his back. We can recall the nasty cut he opened up stabbing Joe Lauzon with elbows from his back. Nonetheless, Stevenson is more dangerous from up top and will win it from there via points.

THE OUTCOME

Both guys are finishers but hard to be finished. They will fight hard and take this to the distance. What will give Stevenson the edge is his ability to decide where this fight will go, and it will go to the ground, where he will outpoint Florian to victory.

WINNER: Joe Stevenson by unanimous decision 29-28, 29-28, 29-28