How does Li’L Nog vs Forrest break down

These 2 will duke it out at UFC 114 in Vegas in May. These are things to consider. What do you think?

STRIKING
Both fighters have shown some flashes of brilliance in their standup, but I will give a slight edge to Nogueira in this area because his last display of power and technique against the very dangerous striker in Luis Cane, showed that Nogueira has worked hard to refine his standup game. Cane was expected to be the better striker in that matchup, but not only was Nog able to hang with his Cane, but he got the better of the exchanges and put his opponent away with a vicious KO in under 2 minutes. Griffin has worked hard to go from a brawler with tons of heart, to a technical striker who still has that same fighting spirit in inside. His leg kicks have been well noted as very tough to endure and definitely take a toll on his opponents as the fight wears on. Rampage Jackson is a tremendously tough competitor, and a leg kick from Griffin proved to be the fight changing strike in their battle, and completely swung the momentum in Griffin’s favor which led him to winning the close decision.
I can really see this fight going back and forth in the striking. Perhaps with Nog having an edge with power strikes with his hands. It may problematic to invest too much stock in one fight, but Nog’s current form and momentum in the standup I feel gives him a slight edge.
EDGE: SLIGHT ONE TO NOGUEIRA

BJJ
Forrest Griffin has some excellent Jiu Jitsu geared towards MMA. It’s not an easy task to choke out a standout fighter such as Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, but Griffin was able to sink in the rear naked choke on Shogun to pull off the tremendous victory against the Brazilian. Griffin has a good ground game, but the edge will go to Nog in this area. Nogueira has a solid BJJ background and is a qualified blackbelt. He has a solid ground game, but I think Griffin will be savvy enough not to get caught in any crafty submissions coming form Nog.
EDGE: NOGUEIRA

WRESTLING
Both fighters can take things to the mat when need be, and will likely trade takedowns, but neither is a bona-fide top wrestler that ensures a guaranteed takedown when he shoots in. A fighter like GSP will likely be able to drag his opponent to the mat whenever he wishes, but there isn’t the same absolutely confidence you will get from both Nog and Griffin. Takedowns from the clinch are tools that both fighters are pretty good at using, as they are scrappy and will fight hard and long to get position and take their opponent to the mat. But one fighter doesn’t have a clear advantage over the other in this realm.
EDGE: EVEN

OUTCOME
Not an easy fight to call, both fighters could take this fight and there’s not a huge advantage going to either fighter. All that being said, if forced to pick a fighter I’d go with Nogueira, who has the skills to handle whatever Griffin will throw at him, and has shown considerable improvement in his striking technique and power. The momentum from his big KO over Luis Cane will propel to a decision win in this one.
Nog by decision, 29-28 on all 3 scorecards.

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