UFC 143 Preview: Nick Diaz or Carlos Condit?

Carlos Condit has been on an emotional rollercoaster. The “Natural Born Killer” has been on a very unnatural course of events as he was given a title shot against Georges St Pierre in October, had the fight put cancelled due a GSP injury; then he lost the title shot as it was given to Nick Diaz; then scheduled to fight Josh Koscheck; but now since GSP has re-injured his knee, Condit has been scheduled for interim-welterweight-title shot against Nick Diaz. It has been a very confusing course of events for both fighters. But in addition to sharing the same murky picture for their upcoming fights, both Condit and Diaz are like in always bringing their A-game regardless of their opponent. This is going to be a very dynamic fight that will likely take place in every position. Both fighters are exceptional at finishing opponents, especially Condit, who has an astounding finishing rate of over 95 percent. This fight may not last the entire 25 minutes of scheduled action, but we do know that action is going to be fast-paced and non-stop for however long it lasts. Here is a deeper look at how this welterweight duel will go down.

STRIKING
Nick Diaz has achieved some remarkable feats in the mixed martial arts world when it comes to boxing. He has been given high praise for his hands and been called by respected fighters like BJ Penn as the best boxer in the sport. It’s not the one-punch KO power that makes Diaz a monster in the stand-up department, but an accumulation of accurate punches that come at a pace that only speeds up. Diaz has a very nasty and vicious style of attack which only amplifies his boxing talents. One punch won’t put away an opponent of Diaz but several of them in succession rattle their brain and start to slow down the mind, body, and eventually the will to compete.

Carlos Condit has always had a solid kickboxing game. He has long limbs, aggressive attack, and a quiet confidence he brings to the cage. He doesn’t toot his own horn, but speaks volumes in competition. He has really come into his own with his striking as evidenced by the vicious knockout of Dan Hardy, which was followed up by perhaps an even more devastating knockout over Dong Hyun Kim. The KO of Kim was not only one of the top knockouts of the year, but a testament the variety and aggressive striking attack of Condit. A flying knee is what started the road to unconsciousness for Kim, and Condit followed up the initial blow with several rapid punches to Kim’s head along the cage which finished of the Korean welterweight in highlight reel fashion.

Condit seems to have stronger one-strike KO ability and skills to finish an opponent with strikes in a shorter time span. However, Diaz’s strength lies in using his boxing so effectively and relentlessly against his opponents. The variety of strikes, power, and skills of Condit pose problems for Diaz, but if it comes down to a points game in striking, Diaz should have an advantage on the scorecards.

EDGE: DIAZ

WRESTLING
Neither fighter is desperate to get fights to the floor, but if opportunities present themselves, takedowns are used by both competitors. Neither is a highly decorated wrestler, nor considered one of the top takedown artists in their division. Both can get the fight to the floor if they need to, but neither fighter has such a strong wrestling base that gives them a distinct advantage. Both fighters have a solid takedown and takedown defense, and this aspect of the game should be relatively close in this fight. They will likely be able to take one another down and stuff some takedowns in the process too.

EDGE: EVEN

GRAPPLING

Half of Carlos Condit’s 26 victories have come via submission. As dangerous as he is on the feet, the ground is also a danger zone against the rising welterweight star. His resume includes submissions that range from armbars, triangles, rear-naked chokes, and guillotines. Condit is very competent on the mat. However he has been tapped out three times earlier in his career, and Diaz has never succumbed to submission as of yet. Diaz is a very crafty and aggressive BJJ artist in MMA. The second the fight hits the floor he’s trying to lock up something, or transition to a dangerous position. Whether he is on top, bottom, or working you against the fence standing up, Diaz is very aware of the submission options available to him, and doesn’t hesitate for a second to attempt to pounce on those opportunities. I doubt either will be tapped out in this fight by submission, but Diaz’s ground game is very advanced, so he can potentially put Condit in some precarious positions and earn some good points for controlling and threatening to end the fight on the ground.

EDGE: DIAZ

CARDIO

This is a five round fight, so 25 minutes of action is going to test both fighters’ gas tank. Condit has some of the best MMA training on the planet at Greg Jackson’s Academy, and he has never looked unprepared for caged combat. His cardio and aggression enabled him to dispatch of Rory MacDonald in the dying seconds of the third round, after dropping the first two rounds to the Canadian welterweight. Condit is aggressive and unrelenting in his attack, but can cope with pushing that sort of pace. Condit did have a fight defending his WEC welterweight title against Hiromitsu Miura, which went deep into the third, but he hasn’t ventured into five round territory. Nick Diaz has gone the distance in a championship battle when he fought 25 hard minutes against KJ Noons in StrikeForce. It was another example of the torrent pace Diaz sets and maintains during a fight. While others slow down as a fight progress, he seems to gain strength and confidence as his body gets pushed into more tumultuous predicaments. His endurance training with triathlons has served him well in his MMA career. He brings that everlasting energy into the cage and really wears down the body of his opponents, and erodes their spirit in the process. Condit may be on par with what Diaz brings to the table, but at the moment, the extra lung Diaz seems to be packing inside his Stockton-bred frame puts him a cut above the rest in the UFC welterweight division.

EDGE: DIAZ

OUTCOME

On paper Diaz looks like he can come out the victor in this fight, but paper and the mat can be of two different realities. The X-factor in this fight, besides the given unpredictable nature of MMA, is the explosive and effective striking attack of Condit. He a very strong ability to inflict a severe amount of damage in a very short period of time, especially on the feet. However, I think Diaz’s chin will keep him from being put away with strikes in this fight. That and the fact that he has a tremendous boxing attack that Condit will have to worry about in the stand-up portion of this fight. Expect a close fight but Diaz picking up steam in later rounds. He’ll likely come out on top during three out of the five rounds in this 25 minute duel.

DIAZ BY DECISION

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