- Avoid getting taken down. BJ Penn is a master on the ground and you don’t want him on top of you. Able to strike and submit from the top position, Penn is ultra dangerous when he takes fighters down. At all costs Kenny Florian should avoid this spot and he looks like he has made great strides in this department–stopping Joe Stevenson from several takedown attempts and leaping back up when he was planted on the mat.
- Don’t get into a ground war. It’s a risky proposition to try and turn this fight into a ground battle. Florian will have to try very hard to take down Penn, who has some of the best takedown D in the game. And once he gets him down it’s going to be a constant barrage of submission attempts he’ll have to thwart.
- Sprawl and Brawl. Many people would give the striking edge to Penn, but Florian has made many strides in his Muay Thai and is very effective. If he can put together a solid striking game with his wide array of attack, he could find a way to outpoint Penn. This is probably Florian’s best chance to win because Penn is too solid of a master on the ground to get exploited there. The stand up game is Florian’s best bet.
- Have a contingency plan. If the striking strategy doesn’t work then Florian will have to find a way to win by other means. Then he’ll have to cross off #2 from this list and look to get Penn down. Single and double legs don’t work too well against Penn, so perhaps a takedown from the clinch, much like the impressive one Florian pulled off against Joe Stevenson is in order. It won’t be easy as Penn is a strong 155er, but trying to get the fight to the mat via the clinch game and scoring some ground and pound from there would be a good 2nd order strategy.
- Elbows. Blessed with some solid pointy elbows and the ability to use them, Florian can take advantage of this. Even in the tragic case where he is down 4 rounds to none in the fight, in the 5th round if he goes elbow happy he can cut his way to the 155 pound title. Florian is dangerous from the top and bottom position with his elbows, as well as on the feet. No matter where the fight goes (clinch, striking from the non-attached position, bottom or top) Florian is one clean elbow away from victory.
- Take the fight into deep waters. The “problem” with Penn’s cardio was a question going into his fight with Sean Sherk, but has somewhat been erased after the fight. However there still is a stigma attached to his gas tank as he did run out of steam against Matt Hughes, albeit it may have been due to a severe rib injury. Nonetheless, if there is some potential to exploit any holes in Penn’s game later into the bout, it may be in Florian’s best advantage to keep the fight going into the championship rounds. The more time Florian is in there with Penn the more opportunities will open up for him.
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