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Tyson Griffin and Sean Sherk are both great wrestlers, but Sherk is just a little bit better. And that’s what’s going to play into tonight’s battle. Striking is about even, Sherk might be a better boxer but won’t KO Griffin. BJJ goes to Griffin, but he’s probably not going to catch Sherk. Neither fighter has had a very high finishing percentage in recent fights, so it will likely go to decision. Sherk has the better wrestling and can dictate where the fight goes. He’ll win by decision by outpointing Griffin.

from ufc.com:

Main Event – UFC Middleweight Title

Patrick Cote (183) VS Anderson Silva (184)

Thiago Alves (171) VS Josh Koscheck (170)

Junior “Cigano” dos Santos (234) VS Fabricio Werdum (256)

Tyson Griffin (155) VS Sean Sherk (156)

Gray Maynard (155) VS Rich Clementi (156)

Drew McFedries (186) VS Thales Leites (186)

Shannon Gugerty (156) VS Spencer Fisher (155)

Matt Horwich (186) VS Dan Miller (185)

Marcus Aurelio (156) VS Hermes Franca (156)

Pete Sell (170) VS Josh Burkman (171*)

* Burkman initially weighed in at 173; he made 171 on his second attempt an hour later.

“I’m practicing my lucky punch”, quips Patrick Cote at a pre fight press conference pumping up UFC 90 this weekend in Chicago.  While he’s taking a jab at the MMA media who are not giving him much of a shot against Anderson Silva this weekend, there’s much truth in the words which emanate from behind the French Canadian’s patented smirk.

Most people agree Anderson Silva is the better striker, BJJ artist, and has a takedown and ground defence that can likely thwart any wrestling endeavours Cote plans to implement on Saturday night. Thus the reasoning behind the conclusion that many have made—Cote needs to get lucky. Most people feel the only way he can win is to get lucky and catch Silva with a big shot and knock him out.  Cote can indeed practice that.

Some might call it a lucky punch, seizing the moment, capitalizing on a mistake. But luck is often defined as opportunity meets preparation, and Cote can and surely is preparing to create such an opportunity tomorrow night. He need not have to fight the fight of his life, round of his life, or even minute. Often a split second can determine the outcome of a fight. Frank Shamrock stated quite aptly that victory in the cage belongs to the fighter who does the most damage in the shortest period of time. Cote could be outclassed for much of the fight with Silva but a power shot to the chin of the Brazilian could be all that is needed. That’s why we watch MMA, for moments of unpredictability such as those.

There’s a traditional martial arts saying which says, “Don’t fear the person who has studied a thousand techniques one time. Fear the person who has studied one technique a thousand times.” That technique can be a “lucky” punch. If you look at some of the top knockouts in the past few years, many of them were performed countless times in the gym and in the mind of the fighters beforehand with visualization. James Irvin, who has become somewhat legendary in the UFC with 2 classic knockouts is a testament to this line of thinking. His flying knee KO of Terry martin in their bout has been a UFC highlight reel staple. While seemingly appearing out of nowhere, it was a strike which he practiced and visualized hundreds of times. Irvin’s superman punch which dropped Houston Alexander at the beginning of their fight was a result of the exact same process.

Rashad Evans, who will be fighting for the UFC light heavyweight strap in December, also is a good example. Visualization has been a big part of his success. Although he was known as pretty much just a wrestler for a long time, that all changed with his brutal headkick knockout of Sean Salmon. Evans had already knocked out Salmon prior to stepping into the cage a plethora of times in his mind and by mimicking the technique in the gym.

All these powerful strikes where the result of good luck—opportunity meets preparation. Indeed the harder you work the luckier you get. Cote surely has a few of these techniques in his bag of tricks. If he pulls out one tomorrow and defeats Anderson Silva he should not be offended if it is called a lucky strike. Those with a deep understanding and appreciation of the MMA game know how much work went into that good fortune.

Anderson Silva might be calling it quits in a year and a half. Who should he take on to round out his career if this is the case? (assuming he is not defeated by Patrick Cote)

1.       GSP. Georges St. Pierre is the top 170 pounder in the world and a battle between these two would be a very entertaining fight. Highly athletic and game opponents would make for a dynamic fight.

2.       Chuck Liddell. Somebody is getting knocked out in this stand up battle and that’s always great to watch. These two will provide a very exciting fight.

3.       Wanderlei Silva. Two Muay Thai fighters who love to bang. This will be an instant classic, just as with Liddell, somebody is going to be out on the mat when it’s done.

4.       Fedor Emelianenko. This is a dream/fantasy fight. Who is the best pound for pound fighter in the world? Only one way to find out. Silva walks around at 220 and maybe some weight can be agreed upon.

5.       Shogun. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is a striking genius at 205 and would make for a great candidate for Shogun to fight.

6.       Rampage. Quinton Jackson and Silva can put on a great show for the fans.  Indeed light heavyweight has a lot of great potential matchups for the 185 pound king.

7.       Matt Lindland. Finally we can see this fight happen and decide if Lindland can handle the heat that Silva has brought to opponent after opponent at 185.

8.       Randy Couture. While we’re throwing fantasy matchups into the hat, put Couture in there. His whole career has been dream like and moving down to 205 to fight Silva seems ridiculous perhaps, but with Couture only expect the amazing.

9.       Cung Le. These two strikers would make for a classic striking war.

10.   Forrest Griffin. He’s the champ at 205, Anderson Silva is the champ at 185. Neither fighter backs down an inch. Sounds like a fun fight.

11. BJ Penn. He loves hopping weight classes from 155 to heavyweight. Penn has an intense desire to be champ at 185, 170 and 155. He should meet Silva at 185 to try and make part of this dream come true.

I tend to favour wrestlers in ambiguous battles such as Josh Koscheck versus Thiago Alves, but this time around I’m going with Alves. If Koscheck wins he’ll probably secure a decision, while Alves is much more dangerous in terms of finishing a fight. His knees have been the source of much KO power as of late with his knockouts of Karo Parisyan and Matt Hughes. That dangerous element to his striking is complimented with powerful kicks and fists. He has a complete stand up game and a huge desire to contend for the title.

Koscheck is a consummate pro when it comes to competing. His standup has improved but he will likely not want to stand with Alves, who has been real hot as of late with his Muay Thai arsenal. Koscheck is going to have to get the fight to the ground and keep it there. He has the ability to do it but the relentless attack of Alves is going to be constantly keeping Koscheck in dangerous territory and at some point I think Alves can catch him. Knees have been  his forte and were the kryptonite of Koscheck in his loss to Drew Fickett (Koscheck shot in and ate a big knee which spelt the beginning of the end for him). Surely he’s learned from the loss and reviewed Alves’ tape, but they are still a threat and the rest of Alves’ tools will likely allow the Brazilian to come out on top this time out.

“I don’t care about the odds,” Patrick Cote said recently on MMAWeekly Radio. “It’s just better for my friends, and everybody who believes in me will put money on me and they will be a lot richer after the fight.”

Anderson Silva quotes on fighting Patrick Cote at UFC 90

“I believe in every opponent there are some weak points that I can capitalise on.”

“He may find some weak points in my game where he can capitalise on me.

“I think Patrick Cote is right. I am beatable.
“Every fighter should be confident and, the same way he’s confident, I’m confident.”

“If Cote thinks he’s going to knock me out or submit me in the third round that’s a good thing to think that.”

“But there is an opportunity that he might get knocked out or submitted by me in the first round.”

“I think it’s going to be real fun. He is going to come out and stand up with me and it will be exciting and entertaining. He’s going to hit me and I’m going to hit him a few times and we’ll see what happens.”

“I believe in every opponent there are some weak pionts that I can capitalize on. He may find some weak points in my game where he can capitalize on me, but I am very confident and I’m training very hard. I think Patrick Cote is right: I am beatable.”

“I believe the confidence that Patrick Cote has is a good thing. Every fighter should be confident and the same way he’s confident I’m confident. If Cote thinks he’s going to knock me out or submit me in the third round that’s a good thing to think that. But there is an opportunity that he might get knocked out or submitted. I believe everybody is beatalbe and that’s what makes this sport so interesting.”

from TSN:

“First of all nobody’s unbeatable in this game,” Serra told the Canadian Press. “And I think Cote has a way bigger shot than people are giving him credit him for. . . . Styles makes fights and Patrick’s proved to have a solid chin, heavy hands and he’s very technical in there with the striking.

“In other words, he’s going to come in there with some strategy and I definitely can see him making the upset there.”